How will the second half of China's economy go in 2020?

The Chinese economy is slowly recovering from the impact of the epidemic. The May macro data released recently by the National Bureau of Statistics show that production and demand are continuously improving, and consumer demand continues to pick up. At the same time, the recovery in manufacturing and consumption is still slow, employment pressures remain, and prices continue to fall. How to view the recovery of China's economy in the second half of the year, what are the main challenges, how to make fiscal and monetary policies more proactive, accurate and effective, and how to view the impact of the global economic situation on the Chinese economy in the second half of the year Where is the resilience and potential of the Chinese economy in time?

Under the impact of the ultra-large-scale epidemic, the rebound of the economy in the first half of the year laid a good foundation for the overall recovery of the economy in the second half of the year. According to the level of China’s control of the epidemic and the macroeconomic policies issued, we predict that the Chinese economy will achieve a 6% growth rate in the fourth quarter, which means that the Chinese economy will basically return to the level of growth before the epidemic by the end of this year. Looking at the whole year, we predict that China's economic growth rate this year will achieve 2.9% growth.

Our optimistic prediction of the Chinese economy does not take extreme conditions into account, but is based on two assumptions: One is the current normal development trend of the global epidemic. Under this trend, we assume the global epidemic The inflection point appeared at the end of the second quarter and the beginning of the third quarter, and the second large-scale outbreak did not break out again. The second is that in the second half of the year, international cooperation in epidemic management and control will be further deepened.

When each team makes a macro analysis, it will make different assumptions about the development of the epidemic in the second half of the year. We believe that some extreme conditions will indeed have some signs, but China's economy will not return to the state and level before the epidemic at the end of the year.